Analyzing Projected Precipitation Extremes in Southeastern Michigan

Rainfall has been increasing in intensity and frequency over the past several decades in southeastern Michigan. As a result, widespread flooding damages homes and infrastructure and creates hardship for residents.

From 2025-2026, the Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research is partnering with Limnotech to conduct analyses that support modeling and adaptation efforts around flood risk in southeastern Michigan.

Objectives

The goal of this study is to analyze the expected impacts of climate change on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships in the study area. Using historical records and future climate projections, datasets will be produced that reflect predicted extreme rainfall in future scenarios. Project objectives include:

• Developing projected IDF curves for 2065 and 2085 across the study region, representing uncertainty across data sources and across multiple emissions scenarios.

• Providing guidance for a Limnotech and Army Corps-led vulnerability and adaptation report.

Outcomes

These analyses will inform adaptation strategies for stormwater management and risks to combined sewer systems in southeastern Michigan.